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Atlético CP vs Vianense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

Atlético CP
Atlético CPadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vianense
Vianense
6/11/2023Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Championship - FinalEstádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atlético CP63%
×Draw21%
Vianense17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético CP
2.04
Vianense
0.94

Atlético CP creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Atlético CP
2.50
Vianense
1.14

allows per match

Atlético CP
0.75
Vianense
1.57

finishing

Atlético CP+0.00on par
Vianense+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético CP ↓

Vianense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atlético CP or draw
83%
Atlético CP or Vianense
79%
Draw or Vianense
37%

Winning margin

Atlético CP wins by 2+
39%
Vianense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético CP 1+ goals
87%
Atlético CP 2+ goals
60%
Atlético CP 3+ goals
33%
Vianense 1+ goals
61%
Vianense 2+ goals
24%
Vianense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético CP (draw refunded)
79%
Vianense (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético CP at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Vianense away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético CP attack 2.50 + Vianense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Vianense attack 1.14 + Atlético CP defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atlético CP scores more
63%
level
21%
Vianense scores more
17%

Atlético CP at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atlético CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round: Atlético CP 3–0 Vianense

Atlético CP beat Vianense 3-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional in Jamor, Oeiras.