Atlético CP 1–1 Rio Ave: Result & Stats

Atlético CP

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rio Ave

10/19/2024

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Da Tapadinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atlético CP40%

×Draw25%

Rio Ave35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético CPExpected goals in this matchRio Ave

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.34

Atlético CP

1.46

Rio Ave

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

2.09

0.60

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Atlético CP

1.20

Rio Ave

2.09

allows per match

Atlético CP

0.60

Rio Ave

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético CP+0.00on par

Rio Ave+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético CP ↓

Rio Ave →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atlético CP or draw

65%

Atlético CP or Rio Ave

75%

Draw or Rio Ave

60%

Winning margin

Atlético CP wins by 2+

19%

Rio Ave wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Atlético CP 1+ goals

77%

Atlético CP 2+ goals

43%

Atlético CP 3+ goals

18%

Rio Ave 1+ goals

74%

Rio Ave 2+ goals

39%

Rio Ave 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Atlético CP (draw refunded)

54%

Rio Ave (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético CP at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético CP attack 1.20 + Rio Ave defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rio Ave attack 2.09 + Atlético CP defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético CP scores more

40%

level

25%

Rio Ave scores more

35%

Atlético CP at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff