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Atlético CP vs Oliveira Hospital — Liga 3 2021

Atlético CP
Atlético CP
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
1/21/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 17Estádio Da Tapadinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Atlético CP48%
×Draw27%
Oliveira Hospital25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético CP
1.45
Oliveira Hospital
0.97

Atlético CP creates 49% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 56 away

creates per match

Atlético CP
1.33
Oliveira Hospital
0.93

allows per match

Atlético CP
1.00
Oliveira Hospital
1.57

finishing

Atlético CP+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético CP ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético CP or draw
75%
Atlético CP or Oliveira Hospital
73%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
52%

Winning margin

Atlético CP wins by 2+
24%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético CP 1+ goals
77%
Atlético CP 2+ goals
42%
Atlético CP 3+ goals
18%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
62%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
25%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético CP (draw refunded)
66%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético CP at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 46 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético CP attack 1.33 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.93 + Atlético CP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético CP scores more
48%
level
27%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
25%

Atlético CP at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético CP vs Oliveira Hospital

Atlético CP beat Oliveira Hospital 1-0 in Liga 3 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Da Tapadinha in Lisboa.