Atlético CP 0–2 Benfica: Result & Stats

Atlético CP

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Benfica

11/21/2025

Taça de Portugal · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atlético CP27%

×Draw29%

Benfica44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético CPExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.26

Atlético CP

0.92

Benfica

1.26

Benfica creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

1.20

creates per match

1.92

0.60

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Atlético CP

1.20

Benfica

1.92

allows per match

Atlético CP

0.60

Benfica

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético CP+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético CP ↓

Benfica →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atlético CP or draw

56%

Atlético CP or Benfica

71%

Draw or Benfica

73%

Winning margin

Atlético CP wins by 2+

Benfica wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Atlético CP 1+ goals

60%

Atlético CP 2+ goals

23%

Atlético CP 3+ goals

Benfica 1+ goals

72%

Benfica 2+ goals

36%

Benfica 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atlético CP (draw refunded)

38%

Benfica (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético CP at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Benfica away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético CP attack 1.20 + Benfica defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.92

Benfica attack 1.92 + Atlético CP defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético CP scores more

27%

level

29%

Benfica scores more

44%

Benfica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff