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Atlético CP vs 1º Dezembro — Liga 3 2021

Atlético CP
Atlético CP
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
1º Dezembro
1º Dezembro
10/12/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 5Estádio Da Tapadinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Atlético CP45%
×Draw28%
1º Dezembro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético CP
1.33
1º Dezembro
0.96

Atlético CP creates 39% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 44 away

creates per match

Atlético CP
1.33
1º Dezembro
0.91

allows per match

Atlético CP
1.00
1º Dezembro
1.34

finishing

Atlético CP+0.00on par
1º Dezembro+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético CP ↓

1º Dezembro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético CP or draw
73%
Atlético CP or 1º Dezembro
72%
Draw or 1º Dezembro
55%

Winning margin

Atlético CP wins by 2+
21%
1º Dezembro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético CP 1+ goals
74%
Atlético CP 2+ goals
38%
Atlético CP 3+ goals
15%
1º Dezembro 1+ goals
62%
1º Dezembro 2+ goals
25%
1º Dezembro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético CP (draw refunded)
63%
1º Dezembro (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético CP at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 46 matches

1º Dezembro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético CP attack 1.33 + 1º Dezembro defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

1º Dezembro attack 0.91 + Atlético CP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético CP scores more
45%
level
28%
1º Dezembro scores more
27%

Atlético CP at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético CP vs 1º Dezembro

Atlético CP beat 1º Dezembro 4-0 in Liga 3 on October 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Da Tapadinha in Lisbon.