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Atlético Colegiales vs Sportivo Luqueno — Division Intermedia 2018

Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
6/18/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 13Estadio Salvador Morga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Colegiales25%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Luqueno47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Colegiales
0.88
Sportivo Luqueno
1.33

Sportivo Luqueno creates 51% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Atlético Colegiales
0.96
Sportivo Luqueno
1.20

allows per match

Atlético Colegiales
1.47
Sportivo Luqueno
0.80

finishing

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Colegiales ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Colegiales or draw
53%
Atlético Colegiales or Sportivo Luqueno
72%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
75%

Winning margin

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
8%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
6%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
74%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
38%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
34%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Colegiales at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.96 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.20 + Atlético Colegiales defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlético Colegiales scores more
25%
level
28%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
47%

Sportivo Luqueno at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Atlético Colegiales 1–0 Sportivo Luqueno

Atlético Colegiales beat Sportivo Luqueno 1-0 in Division Intermedia on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Salvador Morga in Itá.