Atlético Colegiales 4–1 Sportivo Carapeguá

Atlético Colegiales

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Sportivo Carapeguá

8/27/2024

Division Intermedia · Round 23Estadio Prof. Luciano Zacarías

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Atlético Colegiales35%

×Draw27%

Sportivo Carapeguá38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético ColegialesExpected goals in this matchSportivo Carapeguá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.29

Atlético Colegiales

1.21

Sportivo Carapeguá

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 53 away

0.96

creates per match

1.11

1.47

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Atlético Colegiales

0.96

Sportivo Carapeguá

1.11

allows per match

Atlético Colegiales

1.47

Sportivo Carapeguá

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Sportivo Carapeguá+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Colegiales ↓

Sportivo Carapeguá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Colegiales or draw

62%

Atlético Colegiales or Sportivo Carapeguá

73%

Draw or Sportivo Carapeguá

65%

Winning margin

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+

15%

Sportivo Carapeguá wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals

70%

Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals

34%

Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals

12%

Sportivo Carapeguá 1+ goals

72%

Sportivo Carapeguá 2+ goals

37%

Sportivo Carapeguá 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)

47%

Sportivo Carapeguá (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Colegiales at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Sportivo Carapeguá away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.96 + Sportivo Carapeguá defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sportivo Carapeguá attack 1.11 + Atlético Colegiales defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Colegiales scores more

35%

level

27%

Sportivo Carapeguá scores more

38%

Sportivo Carapeguá at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sportivo Carapeguá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff