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Atlético Colegiales vs SOL DE America — Division Intermedia 2018

Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SOL DE America
SOL DE America
8/6/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 20Estadio Prof. Luciano Zacarías

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Atlético Colegiales29%
×Draw27%
SOL DE America45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Colegiales
1.09
SOL DE America
1.42

SOL DE America creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 36 away

creates per match

Atlético Colegiales
0.96
SOL DE America
1.36

allows per match

Atlético Colegiales
1.47
SOL DE America
1.22

finishing

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par
SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Colegiales ↓

SOL DE America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Colegiales or draw
55%
Atlético Colegiales or SOL DE America
73%
Draw or SOL DE America
71%

Winning margin

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
11%
SOL DE America wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
10%
SOL DE America 1+ goals
76%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
41%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
39%
SOL DE America (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Colegiales at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.96 + SOL DE America defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

SOL DE America attack 1.36 + Atlético Colegiales defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Colegiales scores more
29%
level
27%
SOL DE America scores more
45%

SOL DE America at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SOL DE America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Colegiales vs SOL DE America

SOL DE America beat Atlético Colegiales 1-0 in Division Intermedia on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Prof. Luciano Zacarías in Asunción.