Atlético Colegiales 2–1 Rubio NU: Result & Stats

Atlético Colegiales

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rubio NU

4/30/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 5Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Atlético Colegiales31%

×Draw28%

Rubio NU41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético ColegialesExpected goals in this matchRubio NU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.28

Atlético Colegiales

1.08

Rubio NU

1.28

Rubio NU creates 19% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 107 away

0.96

creates per match

1.09

1.47

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Atlético Colegiales

0.96

Rubio NU

1.09

allows per match

Atlético Colegiales

1.47

Rubio NU

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Colegiales ↓

Rubio NU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Colegiales or draw

59%

Atlético Colegiales or Rubio NU

72%

Draw or Rubio NU

69%

Winning margin

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+

12%

Rubio NU wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals

66%

Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals

29%

Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals

10%

Rubio NU 1+ goals

72%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

37%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)

43%

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Colegiales at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.96 + Rubio NU defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Rubio NU attack 1.09 + Atlético Colegiales defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Colegiales scores more

31%

level

28%

Rubio NU scores more

41%

Rubio NU at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff