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Atlético Colegiales vs Pastoreo — Division Intermedia 2018

Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pastoreo
Pastoreo
Estigarribia Federico 59'
7/11/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 16Estadio General Adrián Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Atlético Colegiales31%
×Draw27%
Pastoreo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Colegiales
1.11
Pastoreo
1.36

Pastoreo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Atlético Colegiales
0.96
Pastoreo
1.25

allows per match

Atlético Colegiales
1.47
Pastoreo
1.27

finishing

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par
Pastoreo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Colegiales ↓

Pastoreo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Colegiales or draw
58%
Atlético Colegiales or Pastoreo
73%
Draw or Pastoreo
69%

Winning margin

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
12%
Pastoreo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
10%
Pastoreo 1+ goals
74%
Pastoreo 2+ goals
39%
Pastoreo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
42%
Pastoreo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Colegiales at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Pastoreo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.96 + Pastoreo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Pastoreo attack 1.25 + Atlético Colegiales defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlético Colegiales scores more
31%
level
27%
Pastoreo scores more
42%

Pastoreo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
Estigarribia Federico

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Atlético Colegiales 1–0 Pastoreo

Atlético Colegiales beat Pastoreo 1-0 in Division Intermedia on July 11, 2022.

Goals: Estigarribia Federico (59').

The match was played at Estadio General Adrián Jara in Luque.