Atlético Colegiales 1–1 Fernando De La Mora

Atlético Colegiales

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fernando De La Mora

7/1/2024

Division Intermedia · Round 14Estadio Prof. Luciano Zacarías

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Atlético Colegiales31%

×Draw27%

Fernando De La Mora41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético ColegialesExpected goals in this matchFernando De La Mora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.31

Atlético Colegiales

1.11

Fernando De La Mora

1.31

Fernando De La Mora creates 18% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 113 away

0.96

creates per match

1.16

1.47

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Atlético Colegiales

0.96

Fernando De La Mora

1.16

allows per match

Atlético Colegiales

1.47

Fernando De La Mora

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Colegiales ↓

Fernando De La Mora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Colegiales or draw

59%

Atlético Colegiales or Fernando De La Mora

73%

Draw or Fernando De La Mora

69%

Winning margin

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+

12%

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals

67%

Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals

30%

Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals

10%

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals

73%

Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals

38%

Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)

43%

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Colegiales at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Fernando De La Mora away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.96 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.16 + Atlético Colegiales defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Colegiales scores more

31%

level

27%

Fernando De La Mora scores more

41%

Fernando De La Mora at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff