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Atlético Colegiales vs Deportivo Santani — Division Intermedia 2018

Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
9/4/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 25Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Atlético Colegiales33%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Santani40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Colegiales
1.15
Deportivo Santani
1.30

Deportivo Santani creates 13% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

creates per match

Atlético Colegiales
0.96
Deportivo Santani
1.13

allows per match

Atlético Colegiales
1.47
Deportivo Santani
1.33

finishing

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par
Deportivo Santani+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Colegiales ↓

Deportivo Santani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Colegiales or draw
60%
Atlético Colegiales or Deportivo Santani
73%
Draw or Deportivo Santani
67%

Winning margin

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
13%
Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
45%
Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Colegiales at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Deportivo Santani away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.96 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportivo Santani attack 1.13 + Atlético Colegiales defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético Colegiales scores more
33%
level
27%
Deportivo Santani scores more
40%

Deportivo Santani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Santani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Atlético Colegiales 0–0 Deportivo Santani

Atlético Colegiales and Deportivo Santani drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi in Fernando de la Mora.