Atlético Choloma 5–1 Lobos Upnfm: Result & Stats

Atlético Choloma

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Lobos Upnfm

L. Anaya 76'

J. Bermudez 62', 32'

P. Gotay 35' (OG)

J. Barrios 8'

J. Martinez 30'

10/15/2025

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Atlético Choloma40%

×Draw24%

Lobos Upnfm35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético CholomaExpected goals in this matchLobos Upnfm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.44

Atlético Choloma

1.55

Lobos Upnfm

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 147 away

1.26

creates per match

0.98

1.89

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Atlético Choloma

1.26

Lobos Upnfm

0.98

allows per match

Atlético Choloma

1.89

Lobos Upnfm

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Choloma+0.00on par

Lobos Upnfm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Choloma ↓

Lobos Upnfm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Atlético Choloma or draw

65%

Atlético Choloma or Lobos Upnfm

76%

Draw or Lobos Upnfm

60%

Winning margin

Atlético Choloma wins by 2+

20%

Lobos Upnfm wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atlético Choloma 1+ goals

79%

Atlético Choloma 2+ goals

46%

Atlético Choloma 3+ goals

20%

Lobos Upnfm 1+ goals

76%

Lobos Upnfm 2+ goals

42%

Lobos Upnfm 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Atlético Choloma (draw refunded)

53%

Lobos Upnfm (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Choloma at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.89 · 35 matches

Lobos Upnfm away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.84 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Choloma attack 1.26 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.55

Lobos Upnfm attack 0.98 + Atlético Choloma defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético Choloma scores more

40%

level

24%

Lobos Upnfm scores more

35%

Atlético Choloma at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Choloma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

16'

30'

32'

35'

P. GotayOwn goal

46'

46'

46'

46'

61'

L. Anaya← B. Castillo

62'

J. Bermudez

66'

E. Lopez← J. Martinez

66'

G. Martinez← E. Vasquez

69'

76'

77'

78'

Atlético

Lobos

1

Truque

16

Leveron

28

⚽

Barrios

3

Nunez

4

▼

Cordova

9

▼

Castillo

13

Aceituno

12

Chavez

11

▼

Alvarado

50

⚽2

Bermudez

29

▼

Diaz

1

Valladare

3

Andrino

2

▼

Lopez

5

Garcia

16

▼

Vasquez

27

▼

Pena

11

Moreira

13

Gutierrez

8

▼

Mejia

29

🥅

Gotay

32

⚽

▼

Martinez

Manager: E. Pavón

46'▲J. Padilla←▼K. Pena

46'▲R. Garcia←▼L. Lopez

46'▲J. Ponce←▼G. Mejia

66'▲E. Lopez←▼J. Martinez

66'▲G. Martinez←▼E. Vasquez

Atlético Choloma substitutes

55Lagos17Padilla18Garcia23Dolmo10Morales6Ponce22Ardon20Lopez21Martinez24Barrios

Manager: J. Nazar

61'▲L. Anaya←▼B. Castillo

69'▲H. Diaz←▼J. Cordova

77'▲L. Nunez←▼Alvarado

78'▲J. Franco←▼A. Diaz

Lobos Upnfm substitutes

33Aguilar15Canales24Mosquera14Diaz20Arias17Anaya5Franco6Suazo44Santos22Abbott18Nunez26Ramos