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Atlético Choloma vs CD Motagua — Liga Nacional 2018

Atlético Choloma
Atlético Choloma
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
CD Motagua
CD Motagua
4/4/2013Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 8Estadio Municipal Rubén Deras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Atlético Choloma23%
×Draw23%
CD Motagua54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Choloma
1.13
CD Motagua
1.86

CD Motagua creates 65% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 174 away

creates per match

Atlético Choloma
1.19
CD Motagua
1.48

allows per match

Atlético Choloma
2.24
CD Motagua
1.07

finishing

Atlético Choloma+0.00on par
CD Motagua+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Choloma ↓

CD Motagua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atlético Choloma or draw
46%
Atlético Choloma or CD Motagua
77%
Draw or CD Motagua
77%

Winning margin

Atlético Choloma wins by 2+
9%
CD Motagua wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Atlético Choloma 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Choloma 2+ goals
31%
Atlético Choloma 3+ goals
11%
CD Motagua 1+ goals
84%
CD Motagua 2+ goals
55%
CD Motagua 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Atlético Choloma (draw refunded)
30%
CD Motagua (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Choloma at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

CD Motagua away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.07 · 174 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Choloma attack 1.19 + CD Motagua defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

CD Motagua attack 1.48 + Atlético Choloma defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlético Choloma scores more
23%
level
23%
CD Motagua scores more
54%

CD Motagua at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CD Motagua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Choloma vs CD Motagua

CD Motagua beat Atlético Choloma 3-0 in Liga Nacional on April 4, 2013.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Rubén Deras.