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Atlético Chiriquí vs Alianza FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Atlético Chiriquí
Atlético Chiriquí
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza FC
Alianza FC
8/27/2023Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 6Estadio San Cristóbal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atlético Chiriquí32%
×Draw28%
Alianza FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Chiriquí
1.08
Alianza FC
1.25

Alianza FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 129 away

creates per match

Atlético Chiriquí
0.99
Alianza FC
0.97

allows per match

Atlético Chiriquí
1.54
Alianza FC
1.17

finishing

Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par
Alianza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Chiriquí ↓

Alianza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Chiriquí or draw
60%
Atlético Chiriquí or Alianza FC
72%
Draw or Alianza FC
68%

Winning margin

Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+
12%
Alianza FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals
10%
Alianza FC 1+ goals
71%
Alianza FC 2+ goals
36%
Alianza FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)
44%
Alianza FC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Chiriquí at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

Alianza FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.99 + Alianza FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Alianza FC attack 0.97 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético Chiriquí scores more
32%
level
28%
Alianza FC scores more
40%

Alianza FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alianza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Atlético Chiriquí 1–2 Alianza FC

Alianza FC beat Atlético Chiriquí 2-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Cristóbal in Ciudad de David.