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Atlético Central vs Recreativo Huelva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Central
Atlético Central
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
12/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 15Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Atlético Central46%
×Draw27%
Recreativo Huelva27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Central
1.38
Recreativo Huelva
0.99

Atlético Central creates 39% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 33 away

creates per match

Atlético Central
1.61
Recreativo Huelva
1.24

allows per match

Atlético Central
0.75
Recreativo Huelva
1.15

finishing

Atlético Central+0.00on par
Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Central ↓

Recreativo Huelva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Central or draw
73%
Atlético Central or Recreativo Huelva
73%
Draw or Recreativo Huelva
54%

Winning margin

Atlético Central wins by 2+
22%
Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
40%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
16%
Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
63%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
26%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Central (draw refunded)
63%
Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Central at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Central attack 1.61 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.24 + Atlético Central defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético Central scores more
46%
level
27%
Recreativo Huelva scores more
27%

Atlético Central at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Central vs Recreativo Huelva

Atlético Central beat Recreativo Huelva 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá in Alcalá de Guadaíra.