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Atlético Central vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Central
Atlético Central
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Gabi 90+4'
Juan Gómez 3'
Diego Vargas 77'
Moisés Aguilar 66'
5/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 33Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Atlético Central57%
×Draw25%
La Palma18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Central
1.64
La Palma
0.81

Atlético Central creates 102% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 48 away

creates per match

Atlético Central
1.61
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Atlético Central
0.75
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Atlético Central+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Central ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Central or draw
82%
Atlético Central or La Palma
75%
Draw or La Palma
43%

Winning margin

Atlético Central wins by 2+
31%
La Palma wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
49%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
23%
La Palma 1+ goals
56%
La Palma 2+ goals
19%
La Palma 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Central (draw refunded)
76%
La Palma (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Central at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Central attack 1.61 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

La Palma attack 0.88 + Atlético Central defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atlético Central scores more
57%
level
25%
La Palma scores more
18%

Atlético Central at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Juan Gómez
33'
Ismael Barragán← Álex del Río
33'
Manu Picón← Pinto
46'
Gabi← Marrufo
46'
Pablo Haro← Choco
46'
Daniel Robledo← Cazorla
60'
Diego Rosado← Diego Luís
60'
Sergio Barrera← Carlos Rojas
66'
Moisés Aguilar
68'
Juan Soto← E. Sachetti
77'
Juan González← Juan Gómez
77'
Diego Vargas
87'
Manu Arcos← Ángel Luque
90+4'
Gabi
Atlético
La
Ismael Falcón
Falcón
Antonio Mesa
Mesa
Rafa Navarro
Navarro
Pana
Pana
Diego Luís
▼
Luís
Carlos Rojas
▼
Rojas
Moisés Aguilar
⚽
Aguilar
Ángel Luque
▼
Luque
Diego Vargas
⚽
Vargas
Pinto
▼
Pinto
Cazorla
▼
Cazorla
José Estepa
Estepa
Fran Ávila
Ávila
Juan Gómez
⚽
▼
Gómez
Sergio Ortiz
Ortiz
Álex del Río
▼
Río
Becken
Becken
Marrufo
▼
Marrufo
E. Sachetti
▼
Sachetti
Vicente López
López
Juan Antonio
Antonio
Choco
▼
Choco
José Miguel
Manager: José Miguel
33'▲Ismael Barragán←▼Álex del Río
46'▲Gabi←▼Marrufo
46'▲Pablo Haro←▼Choco
68'▲Juan Soto←▼E. Sachetti
77'▲Juan González←▼Juan Gómez

Atlético Central substitutes

BarragánGabiHaroSotoGonzález
Dioni Arroyo
Manager: Dioni Arroyo
33'▲Manu Picón←▼Pinto
46'▲Daniel Robledo←▼Cazorla
60'▲Diego Rosado←▼Diego Luís
60'▲Sergio Barrera←▼Carlos Rojas
87'▲Manu Arcos←▼Ángel Luque

La Palma substitutes

PicónRobledoRosadoBarreraArcos

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Atlético Central 2–2 La Palma

Atlético Central and La Palma drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 4, 2025.

Goals: Juan Gómez (3'), Moisés Aguilar (66'), Diego Vargas (77'), Gabi (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá in Alcalá de Guadaíra.