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Atlético Central vs Inter Sevilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Central
Atlético Central
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
1/19/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 18Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Central60%
×Draw24%
Inter Sevilla17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Central
1.72
Inter Sevilla
0.78

Atlético Central creates 121% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Central
1.61
Inter Sevilla
0.82

allows per match

Atlético Central
0.75
Inter Sevilla
1.82

finishing

Atlético Central+0.00on par
Inter Sevilla+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Central ↓

Inter Sevilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Central or draw
83%
Atlético Central or Inter Sevilla
76%
Draw or Inter Sevilla
40%

Winning margin

Atlético Central wins by 2+
34%
Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals
82%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
51%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
25%
Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
54%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
18%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Central (draw refunded)
78%
Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Central at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Inter Sevilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Central attack 1.61 + Inter Sevilla defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Inter Sevilla attack 0.82 + Atlético Central defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atlético Central scores more
60%
level
24%
Inter Sevilla scores more
17%

Atlético Central at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Central 0 – 0 Inter Sevilla

Atlético Central and Inter Sevilla drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá in Alcalá de Guadaíra.