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Atlético Central vs Dos Hermanas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Central
Atlético Central
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dos Hermanas
Dos Hermanasadvanced
5/31/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Central45%
×Draw25%
Dos Hermanas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Central
1.57
Dos Hermanas
1.25

Atlético Central creates 26% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

creates per match

Atlético Central
1.61
Dos Hermanas
1.74

allows per match

Atlético Central
0.75
Dos Hermanas
1.53

finishing

Atlético Central+0.00on par
Dos Hermanas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Central ↓

Dos Hermanas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Central or draw
70%
Atlético Central or Dos Hermanas
75%
Draw or Dos Hermanas
55%

Winning margin

Atlético Central wins by 2+
23%
Dos Hermanas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
46%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
21%
Dos Hermanas 1+ goals
71%
Dos Hermanas 2+ goals
36%
Dos Hermanas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Central (draw refunded)
60%
Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Central at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Dos Hermanas away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Central attack 1.61 + Dos Hermanas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dos Hermanas attack 1.74 + Atlético Central defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Central scores more
45%
level
25%
Dos Hermanas scores more
30%

Atlético Central at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Central vs Dos Hermanas

Dos Hermanas beat Atlético Central 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 31, 2026.