Atlético Central 3–0 Coria CF: Result & Stats

Atlético Central

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Coria CF

11/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 11Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Atlético Central56%

×Draw25%

Coria CF19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético CentralExpected goals in this matchCoria CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.85

Atlético Central

1.64

Coria CF

0.85

Atlético Central creates 93% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 95 away

1.61

creates per match

0.95

0.75

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Atlético Central

1.61

Coria CF

0.95

allows per match

Atlético Central

0.75

Coria CF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Central+0.00on par

Coria CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Central ↓

Coria CF →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Central or draw

81%

Atlético Central or Coria CF

75%

Draw or Coria CF

44%

Winning margin

Atlético Central wins by 2+

30%

Coria CF wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals

81%

Atlético Central 2+ goals

49%

Atlético Central 3+ goals

23%

Coria CF 1+ goals

57%

Coria CF 2+ goals

21%

Coria CF 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Central (draw refunded)

74%

Coria CF (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Central at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Coria CF away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Central attack 1.61 + Coria CF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Coria CF attack 0.95 + Atlético Central defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlético Central scores more

56%

level

25%

Coria CF scores more

19%

Atlético Central at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Central vs Coria CF

Atlético Central beat Coria CF 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá in Alcalá de Guadaíra.

Atlético Central vs Coria CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Central vs Coria CF