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Atlético Central vs Ceuta II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Central
Atlético Central
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ceuta II
Ceuta II
3/22/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 27Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Atlético Central54%
×Draw26%
Ceuta II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Central
1.50
Ceuta II
0.78

Atlético Central creates 92% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 82 away

creates per match

Atlético Central
1.61
Ceuta II
0.82

allows per match

Atlético Central
0.75
Ceuta II
1.40

finishing

Atlético Central+0.00on par
Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Central ↓

Ceuta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Central or draw
81%
Atlético Central or Ceuta II
74%
Draw or Ceuta II
46%

Winning margin

Atlético Central wins by 2+
28%
Ceuta II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
44%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
19%
Ceuta II 1+ goals
54%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
18%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Central (draw refunded)
74%
Ceuta II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Central at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Central attack 1.61 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Atlético Central defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlético Central scores more
54%
level
26%
Ceuta II scores more
19%

Atlético Central at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Atlético Central 0–0 Ceuta II

Atlético Central and Ceuta II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá in Alcalá de Guadaíra.