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Atlético Catarinense vs Juventus SC — Catarinense - 2 2022

Atlético Catarinense
Atlético Catarinense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juventus SC
Juventus SC
6/23/2024Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 5Estádio Engenheiro Mário Balsini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atlético Catarinense35%
×Draw30%
Juventus SC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Catarinense
1.06
Juventus SC
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

creates per match

Atlético Catarinense
1.00
Juventus SC
0.83

allows per match

Atlético Catarinense
1.33
Juventus SC
1.13

finishing

Atlético Catarinense+0.00on par
Juventus SC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Catarinense ↓

Juventus SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Catarinense or draw
64%
Atlético Catarinense or Juventus SC
70%
Draw or Juventus SC
65%

Winning margin

Atlético Catarinense wins by 2+
14%
Juventus SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlético Catarinense 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Catarinense 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Catarinense 3+ goals
9%
Juventus SC 1+ goals
66%
Juventus SC 2+ goals
29%
Juventus SC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Catarinense (draw refunded)
49%
Juventus SC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Catarinense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Juventus SC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Catarinense attack 1.00 + Juventus SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Juventus SC attack 0.83 + Atlético Catarinense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atlético Catarinense scores more
35%
level
30%
Juventus SC scores more
36%

Juventus SC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Juventus SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense - 2: Atlético Catarinense 2–1 Juventus SC

Atlético Catarinense beat Juventus SC 2-1 in Catarinense - 2 on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Engenheiro Mário Balsini in Criciúma, Santa Catarina.