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Atlético Catarinense vs Internacional SC — Catarinense - 2 2026

Atlético Catarinense
Atlético Catarinenseadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Internacional SC
Internacional SC
M. Candido 90'
Rafael Lima 50'
M. De Alcantara 80'
8/27/2022Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio Renato Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atlético Catarinense34%
×Draw29%
Internacional SC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Catarinense
1.10
Internacional SC
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atlético Catarinense
1.00
Internacional SC
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Catarinense
1.33
Internacional SC
1.21

finishing

Atlético Catarinense+0.00on par
Internacional SC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Catarinense ↓

Internacional SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Catarinense or draw
63%
Atlético Catarinense or Internacional SC
71%
Draw or Internacional SC
66%

Winning margin

Atlético Catarinense wins by 2+
14%
Internacional SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atlético Catarinense 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Catarinense 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Catarinense 3+ goals
10%
Internacional SC 1+ goals
69%
Internacional SC 2+ goals
33%
Internacional SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Catarinense (draw refunded)
48%
Internacional SC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Catarinense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Internacional SC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Catarinense attack 1.00 + Internacional SC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Internacional SC attack 1.00 + Atlético Catarinense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Catarinense scores more
34%
level
29%
Internacional SC scores more
37%

Internacional SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Internacional SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
Rafael Lima
80'
M. De Alcantara
90'
M. Candido
90+3'
F. Gazzoni
90+3'
Vitinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Catarinense vs Internacional SC

Atlético Catarinense beat Internacional SC 2-1 in Catarinense - 2 on August 27, 2022.

Goals: Rafael Lima (50'), M. De Alcantara (80'), M. Candido (90').

The match was played at Estádio Renato Silveira in Palhoça, Santa Catarina.