Atlético Catarinense 0–0 Guarani de Palhoça

Atlético Catarinense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarani de Palhoça

7/14/2024

Catarinense - 2 · Round 8Estádio Engenheiro Mário Balsini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atlético Catarinense38%

×Draw29%

Guarani de Palhoça33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético CatarinenseExpected goals in this matchGuarani de Palhoça

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.08

Atlético Catarinense

1.19

Guarani de Palhoça

1.08

Atlético Catarinense creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

1.33

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Atlético Catarinense

1.00

Guarani de Palhoça

0.83

allows per match

Atlético Catarinense

1.33

Guarani de Palhoça

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Catarinense+0.00on par

Guarani de Palhoça+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Catarinense ↓

Guarani de Palhoça →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Catarinense or draw

67%

Atlético Catarinense or Guarani de Palhoça

71%

Draw or Guarani de Palhoça

62%

Winning margin

Atlético Catarinense wins by 2+

16%

Guarani de Palhoça wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atlético Catarinense 1+ goals

70%

Atlético Catarinense 2+ goals

33%

Atlético Catarinense 3+ goals

12%

Guarani de Palhoça 1+ goals

66%

Guarani de Palhoça 2+ goals

29%

Guarani de Palhoça 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Catarinense (draw refunded)

54%

Guarani de Palhoça (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Catarinense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Guarani de Palhoça away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Catarinense attack 1.00 + Guarani de Palhoça defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Guarani de Palhoça attack 0.83 + Atlético Catarinense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Catarinense scores more

38%

level

29%

Guarani de Palhoça scores more

33%

Atlético Catarinense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Catarinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff