Atlético Catarinense 1–1 Carlos Renaux

Atlético Catarinense

FT

1 – 1

Carlos Renaux

5/29/2022

Catarinense - 2 · Round 1Estádio Renato Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atlético Catarinense33%

×Draw28%

Carlos Renaux38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético CatarinenseExpected goals in this matchCarlos Renaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.21

Atlético Catarinense

1.11

Carlos Renaux

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 22 away

1.00

creates per match

1.09

1.33

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Atlético Catarinense

1.00

Carlos Renaux

1.09

allows per match

Atlético Catarinense

1.33

Carlos Renaux

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Catarinense+0.00on par

Carlos Renaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Catarinense ↓

Carlos Renaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Catarinense or draw

62%

Atlético Catarinense or Carlos Renaux

72%

Draw or Carlos Renaux

67%

Winning margin

Atlético Catarinense wins by 2+

13%

Carlos Renaux wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atlético Catarinense 1+ goals

67%

Atlético Catarinense 2+ goals

30%

Atlético Catarinense 3+ goals

10%

Carlos Renaux 1+ goals

70%

Carlos Renaux 2+ goals

34%

Carlos Renaux 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Catarinense (draw refunded)

47%

Carlos Renaux (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Catarinense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Carlos Renaux away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Catarinense attack 1.00 + Carlos Renaux defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Carlos Renaux attack 1.09 + Atlético Catarinense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Catarinense scores more

33%

level

28%

Carlos Renaux scores more

38%

Carlos Renaux at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Carlos Renaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff