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Atlético Catarinense vs Caravaggio — Catarinense - 2 2022

Atlético Catarinense
Atlético Catarinense
FT
0 – 0
Caravaggio
Caravaggio
7/17/2022Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 8Estádio Renato Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atlético Catarinense34%
×Draw28%
Caravaggio38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Catarinense
1.17
Caravaggio
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Atlético Catarinense
1.00
Caravaggio
1.17

allows per match

Atlético Catarinense
1.33
Caravaggio
1.33

finishing

Atlético Catarinense+0.00on par
Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Catarinense ↓

Caravaggio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Catarinense or draw
62%
Atlético Catarinense or Caravaggio
72%
Draw or Caravaggio
66%

Winning margin

Atlético Catarinense wins by 2+
14%
Caravaggio wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlético Catarinense 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Catarinense 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Catarinense 3+ goals
11%
Caravaggio 1+ goals
71%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
36%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Catarinense (draw refunded)
47%
Caravaggio (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Catarinense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Catarinense attack 1.00 + Caravaggio defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Caravaggio attack 1.17 + Atlético Catarinense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Catarinense scores more
34%
level
28%
Caravaggio scores more
38%

Caravaggio at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Caravaggio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense - 2: Atlético Catarinense 0–0 Caravaggio

Atlético Catarinense and Caravaggio drew 0-0 in Catarinense - 2 on July 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Renato Silveira in Palhoça, Santa Catarina.