Atlético Catarinense 3–2 Blumenau: Result & Stats

Atlético Catarinense

FT

3 – 2

Blumenau

7/2/2022

Catarinense - 2 · Round 6Estádio Renato Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atlético Catarinense32%

×Draw27%

Blumenau42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético CatarinenseExpected goals in this matchBlumenau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.35

Atlético Catarinense

1.14

Blumenau

1.35

Blumenau creates 18% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 22 away

1.00

creates per match

1.36

1.33

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Atlético Catarinense

1.00

Blumenau

1.36

allows per match

Atlético Catarinense

1.33

Blumenau

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Catarinense+0.00on par

Blumenau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Catarinense ↓

Blumenau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Catarinense or draw

58%

Atlético Catarinense or Blumenau

73%

Draw or Blumenau

68%

Winning margin

Atlético Catarinense wins by 2+

13%

Blumenau wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Atlético Catarinense 1+ goals

68%

Atlético Catarinense 2+ goals

32%

Atlético Catarinense 3+ goals

11%

Blumenau 1+ goals

74%

Blumenau 2+ goals

39%

Blumenau 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Atlético Catarinense (draw refunded)

43%

Blumenau (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Catarinense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Blumenau away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Catarinense attack 1.00 + Blumenau defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Blumenau attack 1.36 + Atlético Catarinense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlético Catarinense scores more

32%

level

27%

Blumenau scores more

42%

Blumenau at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Blumenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff