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Atletico Castegnato vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Luparense
Luparense
M. Pesenti 60'
F. Bangal 25'
11/5/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 10Stadio Comunale Castegnato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Castegnato33%
×Draw26%
Luparense42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Castegnato
1.27
Luparense
1.46

Luparense creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.24
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.71
Luparense
1.30

finishing

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Castegnato ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atletico Castegnato or draw
58%
Atletico Castegnato or Luparense
74%
Draw or Luparense
67%

Winning margin

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
14%
Luparense wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
36%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
14%
Luparense 1+ goals
77%
Luparense 2+ goals
43%
Luparense 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
44%
Luparense (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Castegnato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.24 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Luparense attack 1.21 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atletico Castegnato scores more
33%
level
26%
Luparense scores more
42%

Luparense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
F. Bangal
60'
M. Pesenti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Atletico Castegnato 1–1 Luparense

Atletico Castegnato and Luparense drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 5, 2023.

Goals: F. Bangal (25'), M. Pesenti (60').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Castegnato in Castegnato.