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Atletico Castegnato vs Cjarlins Muzane — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
A. Bertazzoli 23'
L. Belcastro 89'
2/4/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 22Stadio Comunale Castegnato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Castegnato32%
×Draw26%
Cjarlins Muzane42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Castegnato
1.23
Cjarlins Muzane
1.43

Cjarlins Muzane creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.24
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

allows per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.71
Cjarlins Muzane
1.23

finishing

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par
Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Castegnato ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Castegnato or draw
58%
Atletico Castegnato or Cjarlins Muzane
74%
Draw or Cjarlins Muzane
68%

Winning margin

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
14%
Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
71%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
35%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
13%
Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
76%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
42%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
44%
Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Castegnato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.24 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atletico Castegnato scores more
32%
level
26%
Cjarlins Muzane scores more
42%

Cjarlins Muzane at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
A. Bertazzoli
89'
L. Belcastro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Castegnato vs Cjarlins Muzane

Atletico Castegnato and Cjarlins Muzane drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on February 4, 2024.

Goals: A. Bertazzoli (23'), L. Belcastro (89').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Castegnato in Castegnato.