Atletico Castegnato 0–3 Breno: Result & Stats

Atletico Castegnato

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Breno

M. Scanzi 53'

L. Melchiori 22'

D. Vita 1'

1/7/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 18Stadio Comunale Castegnato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Castegnato36%

×Draw25%

Breno39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico CastegnatoExpected goals in this matchBreno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.44

Atletico Castegnato

1.39

Breno

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.24

creates per match

1.18

1.71

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Atletico Castegnato

1.24

Breno

1.18

allows per match

Atletico Castegnato

1.71

Breno

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Breno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Castegnato ↓

Breno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atletico Castegnato or draw

61%

Atletico Castegnato or Breno

75%

Draw or Breno

64%

Winning margin

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+

17%

Breno wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals

75%

Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals

40%

Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals

16%

Breno 1+ goals

76%

Breno 2+ goals

42%

Breno 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)

48%

Breno (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Castegnato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Breno away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.24 + Breno defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Breno attack 1.18 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atletico Castegnato scores more

36%

level

25%

Breno scores more

39%

Breno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Breno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

D. Vita

22'

L. Melchiori

53'

M. Scanzi

81'

M. Pesenti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff