Atlético Cajazeirense 1–2 Globo: Result & Stats

Atlético Cajazeirense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Globo

Bruno Gonçalves 90+3'

Júnior Carioca 90+5'

Beleu 45'

9/20/2020

Serie D · Round 1Estádio Perpétuo Corrêa Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atlético Cajazeirense63%

×Draw23%

Globo14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético CajazeirenseExpected goals in this matchGlobo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.70

Atlético Cajazeirense

1.77

Globo

0.70

Atlético Cajazeirense creates 153% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

1.67

creates per match

0.57

0.83

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Atlético Cajazeirense

1.67

Globo

0.57

allows per match

Atlético Cajazeirense

0.83

Globo

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Cajazeirense+0.00on par

Globo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Cajazeirense ↓

Globo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Cajazeirense or draw

86%

Atlético Cajazeirense or Globo

77%

Draw or Globo

37%

Winning margin

Atlético Cajazeirense wins by 2+

37%

Globo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atlético Cajazeirense 1+ goals

83%

Atlético Cajazeirense 2+ goals

53%

Atlético Cajazeirense 3+ goals

26%

Globo 1+ goals

50%

Globo 2+ goals

16%

Globo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Cajazeirense (draw refunded)

81%

Globo (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Cajazeirense at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Globo away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Cajazeirense attack 1.67 + Globo defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.77

Globo attack 0.57 + Atlético Cajazeirense defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atlético Cajazeirense scores more

63%

level

23%

Globo scores more

14%

Atlético Cajazeirense at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atlético Cajazeirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Beleu

46'

Michel← Patrick

60'

Custodio← João Paulo Peu

65'

Yerien← Enercino

82'

Rogerio← Beleu

90+4'

Jefferson← Testinha

90+1'

Gabriel← Allef

90+1'

Júnior Carioca← Gabriel

90+3'

Bruno Gonçalves

90+5'

Júnior Carioca

Atlético

Globo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Rodrigo Batista

46'▲Michel←▼Patrick

60'▲Custodio←▼João Paulo Peu

65'▲Yerien←▼Enercino

90+4'▲Jefferson←▼Testinha

Atlético Cajazeirense substitutes

MichelCustodioYerienJeffersonBatistaGeanGuilhermeHytaloPedroWallaceFelipe

Manager: Renatinho Potiguar

82'▲Rogerio←▼Beleu

90+1'▲Gabriel←▼Allef

90+1'▲Júnior Carioca←▼Gabriel

Globo substitutes

RogerioGabrielCariocaPauloAlvaroCapaceteBruno

Match Recap: Atlético Cajazeirense vs Globo

Globo beat Atlético Cajazeirense 2-1 in Serie D on September 20, 2020.

Goals: Beleu (45'), Bruno Gonçalves (90+3'), Júnior Carioca (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Perpétuo Corrêa Lima in Cajazeiras, Paraíba.

Atlético Cajazeirense vs Globo — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Cajazeirense vs Globo