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Atlético Cajazeirense vs Botafogo PB — League #603 2026

Atlético Cajazeirense
Atlético Cajazeirense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
G. Coutinho 22'
2/3/2022League #603League #603 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Perpétuo Corrêa Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atlético Cajazeirense31%
×Draw34%
Botafogo PB35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Cajazeirense
0.80
Botafogo PB
0.88

Botafogo PB creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Atlético Cajazeirense
1.00
Botafogo PB
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Cajazeirense
0.75
Botafogo PB
0.60

finishing

Atlético Cajazeirense+0.00on par
Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Cajazeirense ↓

Botafogo PB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Atlético Cajazeirense or draw
65%
Atlético Cajazeirense or Botafogo PB
66%
Draw or Botafogo PB
69%

Winning margin

Atlético Cajazeirense wins by 2+
10%
Botafogo PB wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Cajazeirense 1+ goals
55%
Atlético Cajazeirense 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Cajazeirense 3+ goals
5%
Botafogo PB 1+ goals
59%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
22%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Cajazeirense (draw refunded)
47%
Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Cajazeirense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Cajazeirense attack 1.00 + Botafogo PB defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Botafogo PB attack 1.00 + Atlético Cajazeirense defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Atlético Cajazeirense scores more
31%
level
34%
Botafogo PB scores more
35%

Botafogo PB at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
G. Coutinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Cajazeirense vs Botafogo PB

Botafogo PB beat Atlético Cajazeirense 1-0 in League #603 on February 3, 2022.

Goals: G. Coutinho (22').

The match was played at Estádio Perpétuo Corrêa Lima in Cajazeiras, Paraíba.