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Atlético Bucaramanga W vs Real Santander W — Liga Femenina 2020

Atlético Bucaramanga W
Atlético Bucaramanga W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Santander W
Real Santander W
6/15/2025Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 15Cancha Marte - UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W38%
×Draw30%
Real Santander W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Bucaramanga W
1.09
Real Santander W
0.98

Atlético Bucaramanga W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.55
Real Santander W
0.21

allows per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W
1.76
Real Santander W
1.64

finishing

Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par
Real Santander W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Bucaramanga W ↓

Real Santander W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Bucaramanga W or draw
68%
Atlético Bucaramanga W or Real Santander W
70%
Draw or Real Santander W
62%

Winning margin

Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+
15%
Real Santander W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals
10%
Real Santander W 1+ goals
62%
Real Santander W 2+ goals
26%
Real Santander W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)
54%
Real Santander W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Bucaramanga W at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

Real Santander W away — creates 0.21, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.55 + Real Santander W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.09

Real Santander W attack 0.21 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more
38%
level
30%
Real Santander W scores more
32%

Atlético Bucaramanga W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Bucaramanga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Atlético Bucaramanga W 1–1 Real Santander W

Atlético Bucaramanga W and Real Santander W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Cancha Marte - UMT in Bucaramanga.