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Atlético Bucaramanga W vs Once Caldas W — Liga Femenina 2020

Atlético Bucaramanga W
Atlético Bucaramanga W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Once Caldas W
Once Caldas W
5/3/2025Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 10Cancha Marte - UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W33%
×Draw30%
Once Caldas W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Bucaramanga W
1.02
Once Caldas W
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.55
Once Caldas W
0.43

allows per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W
1.76
Once Caldas W
1.50

finishing

Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par
Once Caldas W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Bucaramanga W ↓

Once Caldas W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Bucaramanga W or draw
63%
Atlético Bucaramanga W or Once Caldas W
70%
Draw or Once Caldas W
67%

Winning margin

Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+
13%
Once Caldas W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals
8%
Once Caldas W 1+ goals
66%
Once Caldas W 2+ goals
30%
Once Caldas W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)
47%
Once Caldas W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Bucaramanga W at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

Once Caldas W away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.55 + Once Caldas W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.02

Once Caldas W attack 0.43 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more
33%
level
30%
Once Caldas W scores more
37%

Once Caldas W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Once Caldas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Atlético Bucaramanga W 0–0 Once Caldas W

Atlético Bucaramanga W and Once Caldas W drew 0-0 in Liga Femenina on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Cancha Marte - UMT in Bucaramanga.