Atlético Bucaramanga W 0–3 Deportivo Pereira W

Atlético Bucaramanga W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Deportivo Pereira W

5/13/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 15Estadio Álvaro Gómez Hurtado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W26%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Pereira W48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Bucaramanga WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.44

Atlético Bucaramanga W

0.98

Deportivo Pereira W

1.44

Deportivo Pereira W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 27 away

0.55

creates per match

1.11

1.76

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W

0.55

Deportivo Pereira W

1.11

allows per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W

1.76

Deportivo Pereira W

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par

Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Bucaramanga W ↓

Deportivo Pereira W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Bucaramanga W or draw

52%

Atlético Bucaramanga W or Deportivo Pereira W

73%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira W

74%

Winning margin

Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+

9%

Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals

62%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals

26%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals

8%

Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)

35%

Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Bucaramanga W at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

Deportivo Pereira W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.55 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.98

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.11 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more

26%

level

27%

Deportivo Pereira W scores more

48%

Deportivo Pereira W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff