Atlético Bucaramanga W 0–4 Cortuluá W

Atlético Bucaramanga W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Cortuluá W

5/23/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 17Estadio Álvaro Gómez Hurtado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W31%

×Draw26%

Cortuluá W43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Bucaramanga WExpected goals in this matchCortuluá W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.44

Atlético Bucaramanga W

1.19

Cortuluá W

1.44

Cortuluá W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 17 away

0.55

creates per match

1.12

1.76

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W

0.55

Cortuluá W

1.12

allows per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W

1.76

Cortuluá W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par

Cortuluá W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Bucaramanga W ↓

Cortuluá W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Bucaramanga W or draw

57%

Atlético Bucaramanga W or Cortuluá W

74%

Draw or Cortuluá W

69%

Winning margin

Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+

13%

Cortuluá W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals

70%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals

33%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals

12%

Cortuluá W 1+ goals

76%

Cortuluá W 2+ goals

42%

Cortuluá W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)

42%

Cortuluá W (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Bucaramanga W at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

Cortuluá W away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.55 + Cortuluá W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cortuluá W attack 1.12 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more

31%

level

26%

Cortuluá W scores more

43%

Cortuluá W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cortuluá W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff