Atlético Bucaramanga W 0–1 Atlético Huila W

Atlético Bucaramanga W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Huila W

3/7/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 5Estadio Álvaro Gómez Hurtado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W26%

×Draw27%

Atlético Huila W47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Bucaramanga WExpected goals in this matchAtlético Huila W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.38

Atlético Bucaramanga W

0.96

Atlético Huila W

1.38

Atlético Huila W creates 44% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 16 away

0.55

creates per match

1.00

1.76

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W

0.55

Atlético Huila W

1.00

allows per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W

1.76

Atlético Huila W

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par

Atlético Huila W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Bucaramanga W ↓

Atlético Huila W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Bucaramanga W or draw

53%

Atlético Bucaramanga W or Atlético Huila W

73%

Draw or Atlético Huila W

74%

Winning margin

Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+

9%

Atlético Huila W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals

62%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals

25%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals

7%

Atlético Huila W 1+ goals

75%

Atlético Huila W 2+ goals

40%

Atlético Huila W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)

36%

Atlético Huila W (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Bucaramanga W at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

Atlético Huila W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.55 + Atlético Huila W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.96

Atlético Huila W attack 1.00 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more

26%

level

27%

Atlético Huila W scores more

47%

Atlético Huila W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlético Huila W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff