Atlético Bucaramanga 1–2 Real San Andrés

Atlético Bucaramanga

FT

1 – 2

Real San Andrés

10/30/2020

Liga Femenina · Group Stage - 3Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atlético Bucaramanga46%

×Draw24%

Real San Andrés29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchReal San Andrés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.25

Atlético Bucaramanga

1.64

Real San Andrés

1.25

Atlético Bucaramanga creates 31% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 32 away

0.55

creates per match

0.75

1.76

allows per match

2.72

creates per match

Atlético Bucaramanga

0.55

Real San Andrés

0.75

allows per match

Atlético Bucaramanga

1.76

Real San Andrés

2.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Real San Andrés+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Bucaramanga ↓

Real San Andrés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Atlético Bucaramanga or draw

71%

Atlético Bucaramanga or Real San Andrés

76%

Draw or Real San Andrés

54%

Winning margin

Atlético Bucaramanga wins by 2+

24%

Real San Andrés wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atlético Bucaramanga 1+ goals

81%

Atlético Bucaramanga 2+ goals

49%

Atlético Bucaramanga 3+ goals

23%

Real San Andrés 1+ goals

71%

Real San Andrés 2+ goals

36%

Real San Andrés 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

61%

Real San Andrés (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Bucaramanga at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

Real San Andrés away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Bucaramanga attack 0.55 + Real San Andrés defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 1.64

Real San Andrés attack 0.75 + Atlético Bucaramanga defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético Bucaramanga scores more

46%

level

24%

Real San Andrés scores more

29%

Atlético Bucaramanga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff