Atlético Baleares 1–2 UD Logroñés: Result & Stats

Atlético Baleares

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

UD Logroñés

Dioni 6'

Carlos Doncel 72'

David Fernández 70'

9/25/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atlético Baleares36%

×Draw30%

UD Logroñés34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BalearesExpected goals in this matchUD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.05

Atlético Baleares

1.08

UD Logroñés

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 32 away

1.26

creates per match

1.06

1.04

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Atlético Baleares

1.26

UD Logroñés

1.06

allows per match

Atlético Baleares

1.04

UD Logroñés

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

UD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw

66%

Atlético Baleares or UD Logroñés

70%

Draw or UD Logroñés

64%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

14%

UD Logroñés wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

66%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

29%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

10%

UD Logroñés 1+ goals

65%

UD Logroñés 2+ goals

28%

UD Logroñés 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

51%

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.26 + UD Logroñés defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more

36%

level

30%

UD Logroñés scores more

34%

Atlético Baleares at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

30'

52'

59'

61'

Aitor Arregi← Mikel Kortazar

61'

Joan Campins← B. Keita

61'

Menudo← Simón Lecea

62'

Josep

66'

67'

70'

72'

73'

Miguelete Ramírez← Víctor Pastrana

73'

U. Adighibe← Kaxe

77'

Canario

77'

Canario

77'

Vinicius Tanque

79'

Claudio← Vinícius Tanque

80'

Carlos Ramos← Alfonso Martín

85'

Hugo Rodríguez← K. Sibille

86'

Miki Codina← Carlos Doncel

90'

J. Serantes

90'

C. Mendes

Atlético

UD

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Jordi Roger

73'▲Miguelete Ramírez←▼Víctor Pastrana

73'▲U. Adighibe←▼Kaxe

80'▲Carlos Ramos←▼Alfonso Martín

85'▲Hugo Rodríguez←▼K. Sibille

Atlético Baleares substitutes

RamírezAdighibeRamosRodríguezPetcoffNavarroRamónCorderoLaureDíaz

Manager: Alberto Aguilà

61'▲Aitor Arregi←▼Mikel Kortazar

61'▲Joan Campins←▼B. Keita

61'▲Menudo←▼Simón Lecea

79'▲Claudio←▼Vinícius Tanque

86'▲Miki Codina←▼Carlos Doncel

UD Logroñés substitutes

ArregiCampinsMenudoClaudioCodinaCrettazArbeloaSchuttePradas

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Atlético Baleares 1–2 UD Logroñés

UD Logroñés beat Atlético Baleares 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 25, 2022.

Goals: Dioni (6'), David Fernández (70'), Carlos Doncel (72').

The match was played at Estadio Balear in Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears.

Atlético Baleares vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Atlético Baleares 1–2 UD Logroñés