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Atlético Baleares vs Ucam Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ucam Murcia
Ucam Murcia
11/21/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Baleares49%
×Draw26%
Ucam Murcia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Baleares
1.50
Ucam Murcia
0.97

Atlético Baleares creates 55% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Atlético Baleares
1.26
Ucam Murcia
0.89

allows per match

Atlético Baleares
1.04
Ucam Murcia
1.74

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par
Ucam Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Ucam Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw
76%
Atlético Baleares or Ucam Murcia
74%
Draw or Ucam Murcia
51%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
25%
Ucam Murcia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
44%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
19%
Ucam Murcia 1+ goals
62%
Ucam Murcia 2+ goals
25%
Ucam Murcia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
67%
Ucam Murcia (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Ucam Murcia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.26 + Ucam Murcia defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ucam Murcia attack 0.89 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more
49%
level
26%
Ucam Murcia scores more
24%

Atlético Baleares at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Atlético Baleares 3–0 Ucam Murcia

Atlético Baleares beat Ucam Murcia 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Balear in Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears.