Atlético Baleares 3–2 SS Reyes: Result & Stats

Atlético Baleares

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

SS Reyes

Tony Gabarre 65'

Jorge Ortiz 52', 11'

Joel Rodríguez 90'

Fer Ruiz 34'

9/15/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Baleares61%

×Draw23%

SS Reyes17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BalearesExpected goals in this matchSS Reyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.82

Atlético Baleares

1.81

SS Reyes

0.82

Atlético Baleares creates 121% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

2.27

creates per match

0.92

0.73

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Atlético Baleares

2.27

SS Reyes

0.92

allows per match

Atlético Baleares

0.73

SS Reyes

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

SS Reyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw

83%

Atlético Baleares or SS Reyes

77%

Draw or SS Reyes

39%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

35%

SS Reyes wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

84%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

54%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

27%

SS Reyes 1+ goals

56%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

20%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

79%

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

SS Reyes away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.36 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 2.27 + SS Reyes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.81

SS Reyes attack 0.92 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more

61%

level

23%

SS Reyes scores more

17%

Atlético Baleares at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Jorge Ortiz

34'

Fer Ruiz

46'

J. Holsgrove← Marc Rovirola

52'

Jorge Ortiz

62'

Rubén De Tomás← Iván Bueno

62'

S. Gassama← Raúl Hernández

65'

Tony Gabarre

67'

A. Emaná← Pipe Sáez

81'

L. Ferrone← David Haro

87'

Arturo← Tony Gabarre

90'

Joel Rodríguez

Atlético

SS

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

Gabarre

Manager: Manix Mandiola

46'▲J. Holsgrove←▼Marc Rovirola

81'▲L. Ferrone←▼David Haro

87'▲Arturo←▼Tony Gabarre

Atlético Baleares substitutes

HolsgroveFerroneArturoGilCerveroGarcíaGinard

Manager: Manuel Cano

62'▲Rubén De Tomás←▼Iván Bueno

62'▲S. Gassama←▼Raúl Hernández

67'▲A. Emaná←▼Pipe Sáez

SS Reyes substitutes

TomásGassamaEmanáTrabazoZazoBuilIrureta

Match Recap: Atlético Baleares vs SS Reyes

Atlético Baleares beat SS Reyes 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 15, 2019.

Goals: Jorge Ortiz (11', 52'), Fer Ruiz (34'), Tony Gabarre (65'), Joel Rodríguez (90').

The match was played at Estadio Balear in Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears.

Atlético Baleares vs SS Reyes — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Baleares vs SS Reyes