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Atlético Baleares vs Recreativo Huelva — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
1/14/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atlético Baleares45%
×Draw28%
Recreativo Huelva27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Baleares
1.32
Recreativo Huelva
0.96

Atlético Baleares creates 38% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Atlético Baleares
1.26
Recreativo Huelva
0.87

allows per match

Atlético Baleares
1.04
Recreativo Huelva
1.39

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par
Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Recreativo Huelva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw
73%
Atlético Baleares or Recreativo Huelva
72%
Draw or Recreativo Huelva
55%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
21%
Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
73%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
15%
Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
62%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
25%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
62%
Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.26 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Recreativo Huelva attack 0.87 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more
45%
level
28%
Recreativo Huelva scores more
27%

Atlético Baleares at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Atlético Baleares 0–2 Recreativo Huelva

Recreativo Huelva beat Atlético Baleares 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Balear in Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears.