Atlético Baleares 1–1 Real Unión: Result & Stats

Atlético Baleares

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Unión

Víctor Pastrana 45'

Carlos Bravo 84'

9/4/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Atlético Baleares41%

×Draw29%

Real Unión30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BalearesExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.00

Atlético Baleares

1.21

Real Unión

1.00

Atlético Baleares creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 46 away

1.26

creates per match

0.96

1.04

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Atlético Baleares

1.26

Real Unión

0.96

allows per match

Atlético Baleares

1.04

Real Unión

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw

70%

Atlético Baleares or Real Unión

71%

Draw or Real Unión

59%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

18%

Real Unión wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

70%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

34%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

12%

Real Unión 1+ goals

63%

Real Unión 2+ goals

26%

Real Unión 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

57%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.26 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more

41%

level

29%

Real Unión scores more

30%

Atlético Baleares at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Víctor Pastrana

46'

Nacho Sánchez← Julen Azkue

56'

J. Aranburu

65'

Toni Ramón← Carlos Ramos

65'

Kaxe← Canario

70'

N. Chema

70'

Miguel Santos← J. Aramburu

70'

Aitor Seguín← Jon Ander

70'

Mario Capelete← Alain Oyarzun

78'

Cordero← David Forniés

82'

Nacho

84'

Carlos Bravo

90+1'

Hugo Rodríguez← Laure

90+1'

Víctor Parada← Chema Núñez

Atlético

Real

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⚽

▼

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⚽

Manager: Jordi Roger

65'▲Toni Ramón←▼Carlos Ramos

65'▲Kaxe←▼Canario

78'▲Cordero←▼David Forniés

90+1'▲Hugo Rodríguez←▼Laure

Atlético Baleares substitutes

RamónKaxeCorderoRodríguezNicoliRamírezSánchezVegaDíaz

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

46'▲Nacho Sánchez←▼Julen Azkue

70'▲Miguel Santos←▼J. Aramburu

70'▲Aitor Seguín←▼Jon Ander

70'▲Mario Capelete←▼Alain Oyarzun

90+1'▲Víctor Parada←▼Chema Núñez

Real Unión substitutes

SánchezSantosSeguínCapeleteParadaEspigaresAguirreJasoJiménez