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Atlético Baleares vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Real Murcia
Real Murcia
12/18/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Atlético Baleares36%
×Draw29%
Real Murcia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Baleares
1.11
Real Murcia
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

creates per match

Atlético Baleares
1.26
Real Murcia
1.18

allows per match

Atlético Baleares
1.04
Real Murcia
0.97

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par
Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Real Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw
64%
Atlético Baleares or Real Murcia
71%
Draw or Real Murcia
64%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
14%
Real Murcia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
10%
Real Murcia 1+ goals
67%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
30%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
50%
Real Murcia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.26 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more
36%
level
29%
Real Murcia scores more
36%

Atlético Baleares at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Atlético Baleares 0–3 Real Murcia

Real Murcia beat Atlético Baleares 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Balear in Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears.