Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Baleares vs Marino de Luanco — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
CANC
22:00
Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
5/9/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Campo de Son Malferit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Baleares67%
×Draw20%
Marino de Luanco12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Baleares
1.98
Marino de Luanco
0.71

Atlético Baleares creates 179% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 26 away

creates per match

Atlético Baleares
2.27
Marino de Luanco
0.69

allows per match

Atlético Baleares
0.73
Marino de Luanco
1.69

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par
Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Marino de Luanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw
88%
Atlético Baleares or Marino de Luanco
80%
Draw or Marino de Luanco
33%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
42%
Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
59%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
31%
Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
51%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
16%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
84%
Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 2.27 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.98

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more
67%
level
20%
Marino de Luanco scores more
12%

Atlético Baleares at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atlético Baleares host Marino de Luanco

May 9, 2020: Atlético Baleares take on Marino de Luanco in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atlético Baleares host Marino de Luanco at Campo de Son Malferit.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.