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Atlético Baleares vs Coruxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Coruxo
Coruxo
9/29/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Baleares66%
×Draw21%
Coruxo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Baleares
1.97
Coruxo
0.76

Atlético Baleares creates 159% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 27 away

creates per match

Atlético Baleares
2.27
Coruxo
0.78

allows per match

Atlético Baleares
0.73
Coruxo
1.67

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par
Coruxo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Coruxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw
86%
Atlético Baleares or Coruxo
79%
Draw or Coruxo
34%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
40%
Coruxo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
58%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
31%
Coruxo 1+ goals
53%
Coruxo 2+ goals
18%
Coruxo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
83%
Coruxo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Coruxo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 2.27 + Coruxo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.97

Coruxo attack 0.78 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more
66%
level
21%
Coruxo scores more
14%

Atlético Baleares at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Atlético Baleares 2–0 Coruxo

Atlético Baleares beat Coruxo 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Balear in Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears.