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Atlético Baleares vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
11/1/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atlético Baleares56%
×Draw25%
Atlético Madrid II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Baleares
1.60
Atlético Madrid II
0.83

Atlético Baleares creates 93% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Atlético Baleares
1.75
Atlético Madrid II
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Baleares
0.67
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw
81%
Atlético Baleares or Atlético Madrid II
75%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
44%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
30%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
80%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
47%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
20%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
74%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.75 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.60

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.00 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more
56%
level
25%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
19%

Atlético Baleares at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Atlético Baleares 1–1 Atlético Madrid II

Atlético Baleares and Atlético Madrid II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Balear in Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears.