Atlético Baleares 0–1 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Atlético Baleares

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Amorebieta

Julen Jon Guerrero 44'

2/26/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Atlético Baleares37%

×Draw29%

Amorebieta34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BalearesExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.06

Atlético Baleares

1.12

Amorebieta

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 46 away

1.26

creates per match

1.07

1.04

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Atlético Baleares

1.26

Amorebieta

1.07

allows per match

Atlético Baleares

1.04

Amorebieta

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw

66%

Atlético Baleares or Amorebieta

71%

Draw or Amorebieta

63%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

15%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

67%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

31%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

10%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

65%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

29%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

52%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.26 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.12

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more

37%

level

29%

Amorebieta scores more

34%

Atlético Baleares at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

R. Rodriguez

44'

Julen Jon Guerrero

45'

Laure

54'

Bilal Kandoussi← Laure

61'

E. Urain← Julen Jon Guerrero

63'

J. Rodriguez

64'

D. Petcoff

70'

Toni Ramón← D. Petcoff

77'

Unai Buján← Rayco Rodríguez

77'

Víctor López← Josué Dorrio

79'

Lucas de Vega← Tropi

82'

V. Lopez

84'

Gorka Iturraspe← Eneko Jauregi

84'

Haritz Albisua← K. Sibo

Atlético

Amorebieta

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Tato

54'▲Bilal Kandoussi←▼Laure

70'▲Toni Ramón←▼D. Petcoff

79'▲Lucas de Vega←▼Tropi

Atlético Baleares substitutes

KandoussiRamónVegaNicoliMartínezCorderoNietoAndrewsDíazSánchez

Manager: Haritz Mújika

61'▲E. Urain←▼Julen Jon Guerrero

77'▲Unai Buján←▼Rayco Rodríguez

77'▲Víctor López←▼Josué Dorrio

84'▲Gorka Iturraspe←▼Eneko Jauregi

84'▲Haritz Albisua←▼K. Sibo

Amorebieta substitutes

UrainBujánLópezIturraspeAlbisuaSeguínMurúaMarino