Atlético Baleares 1–2 AD Ceuta FC: Result & Stats

Atlético Baleares

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

AD Ceuta FC

9/24/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atlético Baleares41%

×Draw29%

AD Ceuta FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BalearesExpected goals in this matchAD Ceuta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.02

Atlético Baleares

1.23

AD Ceuta FC

1.02

Atlético Baleares creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.26

creates per match

1.00

1.04

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Atlético Baleares

1.26

AD Ceuta FC

1.00

allows per match

Atlético Baleares

1.04

AD Ceuta FC

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

AD Ceuta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw

69%

Atlético Baleares or AD Ceuta FC

71%

Draw or AD Ceuta FC

59%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

18%

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

71%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

35%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

13%

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

64%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

27%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

57%

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.26 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.00 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more

41%

level

29%

AD Ceuta FC scores more

31%

Atlético Baleares at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff