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Atletico Atlas vs Juventud Unida — Primera C 2026

Atletico Atlas
Atletico Atlas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud Unida
Juventud Unida
8/16/2025Primera CPrimera C · Round 22Estadio Ricardo Puga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Atletico Atlas41%
×Draw30%
Juventud Unida29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Atlas
1.16
Juventud Unida
0.93

Atletico Atlas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 46 away

creates per match

Atletico Atlas
1.22
Juventud Unida
0.76

allows per match

Atletico Atlas
1.09
Juventud Unida
1.09

finishing

Atletico Atlas+0.00on par
Juventud Unida+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Atlas ↓

Juventud Unida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atletico Atlas or draw
71%
Atletico Atlas or Juventud Unida
70%
Draw or Juventud Unida
59%

Winning margin

Atletico Atlas wins by 2+
17%
Juventud Unida wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico Atlas 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Atlas 2+ goals
32%
Atletico Atlas 3+ goals
11%
Juventud Unida 1+ goals
61%
Juventud Unida 2+ goals
24%
Juventud Unida 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Atlas (draw refunded)
58%
Juventud Unida (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Atlas at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Juventud Unida away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Atlas attack 1.22 + Juventud Unida defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Juventud Unida attack 0.76 + Atletico Atlas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico Atlas scores more
41%
level
30%
Juventud Unida scores more
29%

Atletico Atlas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Atletico Atlas 1–0 Juventud Unida

Atletico Atlas beat Juventud Unida 1-0 in Primera C on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Puga.